There are now more than 85,000 coronavirus cases across the globe right now – most of them in China, where the virus originated – and more than 2,900 deaths. As health officials try to contain the virus, the news that continues to be disseminated is putting millions of people in the United States on edge and the hysteria is rattling the markets.
While I don’t won’t diminish the current health crisis, I think it’s important to examine the data to determine whether or not the panic that many are feeling is warranted. Here are some current stats that will shed light on what I am talking about.
If you examine the risk of death rates by age bracket, you can see that the risk of dying is dramatically higher among patients in their 70s and 80s and this rise can be attributed to those in that age bracket having preexisting health issues. Coronavirus patients with other chronic health issues like heart disease had an about 10 percent mortality rate, and those with diabetes had around a 7 percent mortality rate. About three-quarters of the Chinese patients had no preexisting health issues, and the fatality rate for that group was just under 1 percent. Now while I certainly don’t want to minimize the loss of those people and the effects that it has had on their family members and friends, I think it’s important to question whether some of the hysteria we are seeing across the globe is necessary.
What will this look like one year from now? Will we discover that there were far more cases than were actually being reported? We already know that people can walk around carrying the COVID-19 and not even know they are carriers. These are individuals who are either asymptomatic or are experiencing mild or moderately symptomatic cases who don’t end up seeking assistance from a healthcare provider. If this does indeed end up being the case, then the current estimates that show the rate for coronavirus fatalities will likely decrease by a very large number.
So if everything written above is true, then what does this mean short term and long term for us economically? After all, the greatest impact we are seeing in response to the news is what is happening in the financial sectors. With the stock market sliding over 3500 points this week, there are some who might be panicking that the worst is not over yet, and that may be true. And let’s just be candid here since this is my blog, and I can be as candid as I want to be in my own platform. Some of the leaders in our government are quietly rejoicing at this potential crisis. Members of Congress and even presidential candidates like Mike Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders are grabbing hold of the coronavirus news and are seizing the opportunity to use it as a weapon to wage war against President Trump. Some are seeing the effect that it’s having on our economy as good news because maybe this will bring down the current President.
By no means am I using this platform to speak out for or against our current President or future Presidents. I am not intending to voice my opinion to stir up political debate. What I am addressing is the toxicity of politics and how some individuals will use any and all means to bring down a political opponent even if it means circulating information that creates panic across our country. Isn’t that what we are seeing today?
Do most Americans want to hear Republicans and Democrats like Nancy Pelosi using a potentially disruptive virus as a bludgeon to destroy the other? No! What we expect is for our leaders to put their differences aside so that we can combat this and move forward. And while the lives of individuals are way more important than economics, I think it’s worth noting that the coronavirus will only impact the health of a small percentage of people. However, the news, our toxic and hate-filled political environment, and the hysteria that we are seeing right now will impact an exponentially higher number of people.
Of course, we don’t want to see people contract this virus and become ill or even worse, die. But we also don’t need to see people losing their jobs. We don’t want real estate markets plummeting. We don’t want to see empty hotels and resorts. We don’t want people watching their 401k dry up. We don’t want people so gripped by fear that they won’t eat out at their favorite restaurant, visit their favorite shopping destination, go to watch their favorite team playing in an arena or a stadium, hop on an airplane, take a walk in a park, visit a big city, and even give a child a high five or a hug.
While this coronavirus is something we need to take seriously, I hope the leaders will realize that using this for political gain has much greater potential to wreck people’s lives than this virus. We will survive the coronavirus! But can we survive that virus of hatred and the political toxicity that would cause some in our country right now to be celebrating?
More to come!
Bill Garner
Founder Abundant Path Consulting
